With one round to go in the Qualification to EuroBasket 2013 there are some interesting scenarios and still some spots to be taken by the teams in the competition.
8 teams were already direct-qualified: Spain, France, Russia, F.Y.R.of.Macedonia, Greece, Lithuania, Slovenia and Great Britain.
31 teams fight in 6 groups for the remaining 16 spots. 1st and 2nd in each group are qualified. The best four threes will also qualify. Best three is determined in: 1) win percentage 2) goal average.
* clinched spot to EuroBasket 2013
Red team eliminated
1) Montenegro* 2) Israel 3) Serbia 4) Estonia 5) Iceland 6) Slovak Republic
Last round: Estonia – Iceland, Serbia – Israel, Montenegro – Slovak Republic
Estonia must win to have a chance to get 3rd spot. If Serbia looses and Estonia wins Serbia is eliminated, this would of course be a big upset. Most likely Serbia and Estonia will have best chances to win turning the fight for 2-4 spot to a 3-way tie where Israel has the upper hand.
- Group A “three” will probably have 6/10 wins = 0.600 (enough to qualify as one of 4 best threes)
- If both Serbia and Estonia looses Serbia will take 3rd spot with 5/10 wins = 0.500 (might be enough)
1) Germany* 2) Azerbaijan 3) Bulgaria 4) Sweden 5) Luxemburg
Last round: Germany – Azerbaijan, Luxemburg – Sweden
Bulgaria finished with 4/4. They have a small chance to finish 2nd if both Sweden and Azerbaijan looses. They have the upper hand in a tie with Azerbaijan. This scenario is not much likely. If Azerbaijan wins they clinch 2nd spot. If Sweden beat Luxemburg they are 3rd but still have a chance for 2nd spot if Germany put aside Azerbaijan.
- Group B “three” will have 4/8 wins = 0.500 (might be enough)
1) Croatia* 2) Ukraine* 3) Austria 4) Hungary 5) Cyprus
Last round: Croatia – Austria, Cyprus – Hungary
Ukraine finished with 6/2 and clinched 2nd spot. Croatia has already won the group and are unbeaten but will probably go for the win to stay perfect. Hungary is already eliminated as they can only catch up to 3/5 if they win and Austria looses, but fall to Austria in the tie-breaker. In other words Austria has clinched the 3rd spot but they will need to win to get a 4/4 record keeping their chances for qualification alive.
- Group C “three” will be Austria with either 4/8 wins = 0.500 (might be enough) or 3/8 wins = 0.375 (will not be enough)
1) Bosnia and Herzegovina* 2) Georgia * 3) Latvia 4) Netherlands 5) Romania
Last round: Georgia – Netherlands, Romania – Latvia
Bosnia will finish 1st as they have the tie-breaker if Georgia wins the last game. But Georgia already clinched 2nd spot when they beat Latvia last game and they have the 2-0 tie-breaker over Latvia. To be sure to qualify Latvia must win last game as they should.
- Group D “three” will be Latvia with either 5/8 wins = 0.625 (this is enough) or 4/8 wins = 0.500 (might be enough)
1) Poland* 2) Finland * 3) Belgium 4) Switzerland 5) Albania
Last round: Finland – Switzerland, Albania – Belgium
Poland will finish 1st as they have the tie-breaker if Finland wins the last game. But Finland already clinched 2nd spot if both them and Belgium finish on 5/3 as they have the tie-breaker. For Belgium the situation is like Latvia’s in Group D. A win will be enough to be sure and a loss could be enough.
- Group E “three” will be Belgium with either 5/8 wins = 0.625 (this is enough) or 4/8 wins = 0.500 (might be enough)
1) Italy* 2) Czech Rep.* 3) Turkey 4) Belarus 5) Portugal
Last round: Turkey – Czech Rep., Belarus – Portugal
Italy finished in 1st spot with a perfect record (8/0). Czech has 5/2 and won the last game against Turkey with 82-64 but Turkey still has the chance to pass Czech if they win with 19 points or more at home. Not easy, but not impossible. Lots of pressure on Turkey, it would be a disaster if the 2010-silver medalists would miss Eurobasket 2013. If Turkey looses they still have a chance to qualify as a “three”.
- Group F “three” could be Turkey/Czech with 5/8 wins = 0.625 (enough to qualify)
- If Turkey looses they will have 4/8 wins = 0.500 (could be enough)
I think we will see the three from group A with 6/10 wins = 0.600
I think both Latvia and Belgium will win giving the threes in Group D and E 5/8 wins = 0.625
I think Turkey will win at home giving the Group F three 5/8 wins = 0.625
My conclusion is that a three with a record of 4 wins and 4 losses will not be enough to qualify to Eurobasket 2013.